Edition 32: Autumn 2005
Are we on the verge of a global outbreak of flu, and, if so, what precautions can we take?
Dr Charlie Easmon reports.
A global influenza crisis is now believed to be a case of ‘when’, not ‘if’, according to the Chief Medical Officer for the UK’s Department of Health. The current strain of avian flu is proving highly persistent and difficult to control: the death of a human sufferer in Vietnam in August 2005 was the 62nd such fatality in Asia since December 2003. The longer avian flu lingers and the more it spreads, the greater the risk to humans. If enough migrating birds (and people) carry the virus from Asia to Western Europe, the Mediterranean and North Africa, an avian flu pandemic will soon be upon us.
Since flu pandemics occur in cycles of approximately 39 years, experts calculate that we are less than two years away from the next one. A deadly new strain of the influenza virus could emerge from the current lethal H5N1 subtype, first discovered in terns in 1961. Genetic mutation could result in more virulent strains which would rapidly increase the rate of infection between humans. A recent magazine article compared the possibility to “rolling two dice long enough, and coming up with two sixes.”
According to the UK Statistics Office, if an outbreak of flu as serious as that which occurred in 1918-19 were to hit us now, it could result in as many as 18 million cases in the UK alone, 86,000 of them fatal.
So what should travellers do to protect themselves?
It’s not yet possible to be immunised against avian flu: the race is on for pharmaceutical companies to deliver a long-awaited, highly lucrative vaccine. The best-known protective strategy is to take the flu antiviral, Tamiflu, produced by Swiss company Roche. Stock up before you travel, as this drug is currently unavailable through the NHS; the UK government has committed to buying 13 million doses, but these supplies will not last long.
To protect against other strains of flu, the International Society of Travel Medicine suggests that travellers should get themselves vaccinated before the beginning of the flu season in early autumn (September in the northern hemisphere; April in the south).
The flu jab doesn’t offer any protection against avian flu, but it stops seasonal flu. It can also prevent you being the mixing bowl for a potentially nasty second generation virus. Since the strains mutate every year, an annual jab is recommended.
Travellers who have been vaccinated are less likely to spread flu to people they may meet overseas, or to animals such as gorillas which are known to be vulnerable to some viruses carried by humans. |
